Texans lose in OT to Kansas City. Photo by Bob Levey/Getty Images.
Here's what this insanely too early 2023 mock draft could mean for Davis Mills, Texans
The Houston Texans played hard again but lost to the Kansas City Chiefs 30-24. Here are 11 observations from the game.
1. The team plays hard for head coach Lovie Smith. Smith said after the game his one-win football team doesn’t play like they have one win. He’s right. Back-to-back performances for the team against opponents who should have outclassed them.
2. Davis Mills showcased some of the abilities that had the franchise invest in him this offseason. He was quick with decisions at times and safely extended a few plays. It was an overall positive performance for Mills who hasn’t had a lot of those this season.
3. The fumble to basically end the game is an ugly ribbon on the day. The Texans needed just a field goal to win, and Davis Mills fumbled the ball away to the Chiefs. I suppose it was trying to do too much, but wasn’t the worst decision ever from a quarterback in Mills’ position. A sack likely means a Texans punt.
4. The Jeff Driskel experiment should be over. It was a surprising novelty last week, but it didn’t work this week.
5. The rushing Driskel experiment torpedoed a drive for the Texans. The team trailed by three and was in the red zone. Driskel hadn’t carried the ball on the drive, in fact, Royce Freeman was having the drive of his life. He’d been mauling defenders. Pep Hamilton inserted Driskel, who lost yards. The Texans would kick a field goal.
6. Where has Royce Freeman been? He was a breath of fresh air on the running back depth chart. He had the most consistent attempts of the day. He’s been with the organization for over a year and he’s just now getting an opportunity. Slightly annoying.
7. Lovie Smith trusted his defense at midfield on a fourth and one. He confirmed as much postgame. His defense allowed a 90+ yard Kansas City drive. His offense needed just one yard to keep a drive alive. Smith might have missed that one.
8. The Texans have no constant feel for their kicking game. Ka'imi Fairbairn has a 61-yard field goal in this stadium. They have passed on 54-yard attempts at home and let him kick 54-yard attempts on the road. Today, with eight seconds left, the Texans opted for a kneel down instead of giving their kicker a long attempt after one play.
9. The offensive line for the Texans kicked ass Sunday. It has been in a groove for the past few weeks. Laremy Tunsil should be an All-Pro. Tytus Howard bumped inside with injuries to the offensive line, and Charlie Heck played fine at right tackle. Good job by this unit.
10. The defense had some solid moments against Patrick Mahomes. They were very aggressive and made him pay for extending plays. Lovie Smith even dialed up a well-timed blitz or two. The Chiefs turned out to be too much, but it was a valiant effort.
11. The NFL is about wins and losses. The Texans have the fewest wins. The Texans have the most losses. The Texans are playing harder, but it is likely too little too late for this group. Frank Ross the special teams coach and his crew have an argument to stick around, but the rest don’t. It’s too little, too late for the current coaching staff.
So where does one turn now in Houston for mediocre, overpriced salsa? I kid, I kid. While wondering if Breggy Baked Beans are on the horizon. Congrats to Alex Bregman and agent Scott Boras for landing an on its face outlandish three-year 120-million dollar contract with the Boston Red Sox. With deferred money part of the deal the contract will be valuated in the neighborhood of “only” three years 90 million. Would Bregman have taken that from the Astros if offered? The Astros’ six-year 156-million dollar proposal was 26 mil per season. Bregman has the right to opt out after each of the first two seasons of his BoSox deal. If his decline (while still a very good player) of the last two seasons continues, or even if he holds steady, there is near zero chance of Bregman opting out unless he hates life in New England. At the end of the three years, will Bregman be able to land a three-year 66 million-dollar deal when he’s about to turn 34 years old? That plus the 90 mil with deferrals accounted for in his new deal would total 156 million. Massachusetts taxes personal income of just over a million dollars and upward at a nine percent rate. Playing half his games in the Bay State, Bregman will pay Massachusetts tax on half his salary.
Reminders...
Bregman obviously had an excellent Astros’ career, among non-pitchers he is top 10 all-time, but the excellence was frontloaded. Over Bregman’s first three big seasons he compiled a .289 batting average and .924 OPS. Elite numbers. Over the five seasons since: .261 and .795. Good, nothing legendary. After his monster MVP runner-up 2019 season (stats aided by the juiced balls of that season) Bregman was on a strong early Hall of Fame track. Now not so much, without some offensive resurgence. Fenway Park should suit Bregman well. He’ll bang singles and doubles off of the Green Monster, though the much higher than Crawford Boxes wall will not goose his home run numbers. In his time with the Astros Bregman mashed at Fenway with a .375 batting average and 1.240 OPS. That’s in a statistically not very significant 98 regular season plate appearances.
It is myth that Bregman in the postseason was some relentless hitting machine. He posted phenomenal numbers over seven Division Series batting .333 with an OPS over 1.000. Over 68 American League Championship Series and World Series games: batting average .196, OPS sub-.700.
For his career, Bregman’s worst month of performance by far has been April (plus any days in March, .737 OPS). In 2024 Bregman was baseball garbage into mid-May. Should a typical slow start happen again, we’ll see what the Fenway faithful patience level is. By far, Bregman’s best batting month has been August (.992 OPS). As it works out, both Astros-Red Sox series are in August this year. First in Boston August 1-3 then in Houston August 11-13.
Who's on third?
Over the last two seasons combined, new Astros’ third baseman Isaac Paredes has been as good offensively as Bregman. That includes Paredes pretty much stinking for two months in Chicago after being dealt from the Rays to the Cubs. Paredes, who turns 26 years old on Tuesday, was an AL All-Star last season. Bregman, who turns 31 March 30, was last an All-Star in 2019. The defensive drop-off from Bregman to Paredes is a fairly steep one.
There is no question that Bregman’s official departure weakens the Astros via a domino effect. Had Bregman wound up staying here, Paredes would have shifted to second base with Jose Altuve primarily in left field. Now, 600-plus plate appearances that Bregman would have taken project to be divided among Mauricio Dubon, Ben Gamel, Zach Dezenzo, and others. That projects as a substantial offensive downgrade. The lineup net result of the Astros’ offseason is negative. Christian Walker and Paredes joining the infield in lieu of Jon Singleton and Bregman is fine. Kyle Tucker out, hodge-podge in in the outfield, oh boy.
Alex Bregman is an unquestioned gamer, leader, and would seem to have the temperament to take well to the more intense baseball environment of Boston relative to that in Houston. Yankee fans should reeeeally love him now!
New beginnings
Considering baseball wasn’t invented until more than a century later, the poet Alexander Pope did not have baseball in mind when in 1732 he wrote “Hope springs eternal (in the human breast).” It works though. Other than the Chicago White Sox and Colorado Rockies, Major League teams have convened in Florida or Arizona thinking if things break right this could be their year! I’d probably put the Miami Marlins in with the ChiSox and Rockies. Many Astros’ fans are strongly disgruntled over the departures of Bregman and Kyle Tucker. This team still has “gruntlement” potential. The batting order appears Morganna-level (Google as necessary) top heavy, but one through five stacks well versus most other lineups. In the American League only the Mariners, Yankees, and maybe Royals have starting pitching rotations that should rate above the Astros’ rotation. Let the countdown to Opening Day begin!
Spring training is up and running. Join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday. Click here to catch!
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