AND THE HOUSTON TEXANS SELECT...
Josh Jordan's mock draft 3.0: The rule of three
Apr 5, 2019, 6:54 am
AND THE HOUSTON TEXANS SELECT...
They say good things come in threes. Hopefully, that's the case with my 3rd mock of the year. I have the Texans taking a player that would be an immediate upgrade, and will give the team some stability where there's currently a huge weakness. The Houston Texans have the 23rd pick, so let's take a look at how the draft board might stack up.
All signs point to the Cardinals drafting Kyler Murray.
The 49ers take the best player on the board despite trading for Dee Ford.
Passing on Josh Allen would be a mistake, and they need somebody to pressure Tom Brady.
Mike Mayock knows what he's doing. He'll take the best player on the board, and that's Williams.
The Bucs have to improve on defense. They roll with Gary to hide their weak secondary.
All this talk about Eli Manning playing several more years for the Giants is just a smoke screen. The Giants select their future QB here.
The Jags want to run the ball and play good defense. They appear committed to Leonard Fournette, so they improve their o-line with the best right tackle in the NFL Draft. If Cam Robinson comes back healthy from his ACL, the Jaguars will love their starting tackles.
Matt Patricia is all about defense, and they have to get pressure on Aaron Rodgers. Trubisky and Cousins aren't too shabby either. Hopefully his heart condition doesn't push him down the board.
The Bills might actually have an offensive line worse than the Texans. This pick is a no-brainer as they get the best left tackle available.
The Broncos had an elite defense the last time they won a Super Bowl. Devin White will make an immediate impact.
11. Cincinnati Bengals- Missouri QB Drew Lock
12. Green Bay Packers- Houston DL Ed Oliver
13. Miami Dolphins- Clemson DL Christian Wilkins
14. Atlanta Falcons- Oklahoma OT Cody Ford
15. Washington Redskins- Alabama OL Jonah Williams
16. Carolina Panthers- Iowa TE T.J. Hockenson
17. New York Giants- Michigan LB Devin Bush
18. Minnesota Vikings- Iowa TE Noah Fant
19. Tennessee Titans- Clemson Edge Clelin Ferrell
20. Pittsburgh Steelers- LSU CB Greedy Williams
21. Seattle Seahawks- Oklahoma WR Marquise Brown
22. Baltimore Ravens- Ole Miss WR D.K. Metcalf
I had the Texans selecting LSU corner Greedy Williams in my first mock, and had them taking Ole Miss tackle Greg Little in Mock Draft 2.0. This time, I have the Texans drafting a right tackle because there aren't any left tackles that are worth drafting this high. Also, with the Texans signing Matt Kalil, they are not locked in to taking a left tackle in the first round. I also think that current Texans left tackle Julién Davenport is a better bet to be a decent starter than current right tackle, Seantrel Henderson. Henderson can't stay on the field because of non-stop injuries, so the Texans need a right tackle just as much as they need a left tackle. Remember when the Texans had Eric Winston at right tackle? Yeah, those were good times. Hopefully Risner can have that type of impact.
24. Oakland Raiders (via Bears)- Florida State Edge Brian Burns
25. Philadelphia Eagles- Washington CB Byron Murphy
26. Indianapolis Colts- Mississippi State S Johnathan Abram
27. Oakland Raiders (via Cowboys)- Alabama RB Josh Jacobs
28. Los Angeles Chargers- Clemson DL Dexter Lawrence
29. Kansas City Chiefs- NC State C Garrett Bradbury
30. Green Bay Packers (via Saints)- Mississippi State DL Jeffery Simmons
31. Los Angeles Rams- Georgia CB Deandre Baker
32. New England Patriots- Alabama TE Irv Smith Jr.
Be sure to check out my show MoneyLine with Jerry Bo on ESPN 97.5. We're on every Sunday from 10-noon,
So where does one turn now in Houston for mediocre, overpriced salsa? I kid, I kid. While wondering if Breggy Baked Beans are on the horizon. Congrats to Alex Bregman and agent Scott Boras for landing an on its face outlandish three-year 120-million dollar contract with the Boston Red Sox. With deferred money part of the deal the contract will be valuated in the neighborhood of “only” three years 90 million. Would Bregman have taken that from the Astros if offered? The Astros’ six-year 156-million dollar proposal was 26 mil per season. Bregman has the right to opt out after each of the first two seasons of his BoSox deal. If his decline (while still a very good player) of the last two seasons continues, or even if he holds steady, there is near zero chance of Bregman opting out unless he hates life in New England. At the end of the three years, will Bregman be able to land a three-year 66 million-dollar deal when he’s about to turn 34 years old? That plus the 90 mil with deferrals accounted for in his new deal would total 156 million. Massachusetts taxes personal income of just over a million dollars and upward at a nine percent rate. Playing half his games in the Bay State, Bregman will pay Massachusetts tax on half his salary.
Reminders...
Bregman obviously had an excellent Astros’ career, among non-pitchers he is top 10 all-time, but the excellence was frontloaded. Over Bregman’s first three big seasons he compiled a .289 batting average and .924 OPS. Elite numbers. Over the five seasons since: .261 and .795. Good, nothing legendary. After his monster MVP runner-up 2019 season (stats aided by the juiced balls of that season) Bregman was on a strong early Hall of Fame track. Now not so much, without some offensive resurgence. Fenway Park should suit Bregman well. He’ll bang singles and doubles off of the Green Monster, though the much higher than Crawford Boxes wall will not goose his home run numbers. In his time with the Astros Bregman mashed at Fenway with a .375 batting average and 1.240 OPS. That’s in a statistically not very significant 98 regular season plate appearances.
It is myth that Bregman in the postseason was some relentless hitting machine. He posted phenomenal numbers over seven Division Series batting .333 with an OPS over 1.000. Over 68 American League Championship Series and World Series games: batting average .196, OPS sub-.700.
For his career, Bregman’s worst month of performance by far has been April (plus any days in March, .737 OPS). In 2024 Bregman was baseball garbage into mid-May. Should a typical slow start happen again, we’ll see what the Fenway faithful patience level is. By far, Bregman’s best batting month has been August (.992 OPS). As it works out, both Astros-Red Sox series are in August this year. First in Boston August 1-3 then in Houston August 11-13.
Who's on third?
Over the last two seasons combined, new Astros’ third baseman Isaac Paredes has been as good offensively as Bregman. That includes Paredes pretty much stinking for two months in Chicago after being dealt from the Rays to the Cubs. Paredes, who turns 26 years old on Tuesday, was an AL All-Star last season. Bregman, who turns 31 March 30, was last an All-Star in 2019. The defensive drop-off from Bregman to Paredes is a fairly steep one.
There is no question that Bregman’s official departure weakens the Astros via a domino effect. Had Bregman wound up staying here, Paredes would have shifted to second base with Jose Altuve primarily in left field. Now, 600-plus plate appearances that Bregman would have taken project to be divided among Mauricio Dubon, Ben Gamel, Zach Dezenzo, and others. That projects as a substantial offensive downgrade. The lineup net result of the Astros’ offseason is negative. Christian Walker and Paredes joining the infield in lieu of Jon Singleton and Bregman is fine. Kyle Tucker out, hodge-podge in in the outfield, oh boy.
Alex Bregman is an unquestioned gamer, leader, and would seem to have the temperament to take well to the more intense baseball environment of Boston relative to that in Houston. Yankee fans should reeeeally love him now!
New beginnings
Considering baseball wasn’t invented until more than a century later, the poet Alexander Pope did not have baseball in mind when in 1732 he wrote “Hope springs eternal (in the human breast).” It works though. Other than the Chicago White Sox and Colorado Rockies, Major League teams have convened in Florida or Arizona thinking if things break right this could be their year! I’d probably put the Miami Marlins in with the ChiSox and Rockies. Many Astros’ fans are strongly disgruntled over the departures of Bregman and Kyle Tucker. This team still has “gruntlement” potential. The batting order appears Morganna-level (Google as necessary) top heavy, but one through five stacks well versus most other lineups. In the American League only the Mariners, Yankees, and maybe Royals have starting pitching rotations that should rate above the Astros’ rotation. Let the countdown to Opening Day begin!
Spring training is up and running. Join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday. Click here to catch!
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