Photo via:HoustonTexans/Twitter
Here we go, it's already Week 9 so let's see which free agents are still available. Keep in mind the owner % mentioned is for 10-team standard ESPN PPR leagues. Some of these players below are good for the short-term, while others have more long-term value. You have to make the call on what your team needs. Immediate help to start this week, or a player to stash on your bench and hope he breaks out. Let's get started.
QB
Gardner Minshew: This dude had another big game throwing for 3TDs against the Jets, and he quietly gets his owners some rushing yards every week too. He plays a heavily banged up Texans defense this week, so he should go off again. This is probably your last chance to add him. He's owned in 52% of ESPN standard 10-team leagues.
Jimmy Garoppolo: He more available than you would think. He's only rostered in 32% of leagues, and he has a tasty matchup against the Cardinals this week.
Derek Carr: His defense is awful, so he'll have to throw the ball a ton. Carr had a good game against Houston and having Tyrell Williams certainly helps. Also, he faces the Lions, Chargers, Bengals, and Jets over the next 4 weeks. You can add him in almost 80% of leagues.
RB
Jaylen Samuels: It looks like Samuels is in line for a few starts after James Conner was injured against the Dolphins. Benny Snell was also hurt this week against Miami, so you should be able to start Samuels against Indy this week. Samuels is a good productive player when he gets touches, so his success will be tied to Conner's health or lack there of.
Mark Walton: Kalen Ballage just isn't' very good, and Kenyon Drake is out of the picture. You still have to deal with a bad Miami offense, but there's not a ton of good options at RB on the waiver wire. Walton is owned in less than 20% of leagues.
Derrius Guice: Guice could really help you down the stretch if he's able to return from injury in week 11. Trent Williams is coming back to the Redskins, so that will definitely help the running game. Stash him. He's owned in less than 30% of standard leagues.
Darrell Henderson: He has a bye this week, but he had 13 touches against the Bengals. If you're desperate, he might be able to help you when the fantasy playoffs arrive. He's widely available and Gurley may fall apart down the stretch.
WR
Kenny Stills: He didn't have the big game I was hoping for against Oakland, but he was on the field a ton and should continue to get a lot of opportunities. The Jags are allowing the 8th most yards per game to WR's, so you could do worse this week. He's available in 45% of leagues and that might increase after his underwhelming performance on Sunday.
DeSean Jackson: Jackson will return to practice this week according to reports, but it looks like he's going to just have to manage the pain. The Eagles need some juice in their passing game badly, so if he's on the field, I expect him to get targeted downfield. I can't believe he's still owned in 62% of leagues, but that shows you owners aren't ready to give up on him.
Danny Amendola: We've seen this movie before, Stafford loves throwing to slot WRs. Golden Tate anyone? If the Lions continue to throw this much, Amendola with have low-end flex value in PPR leagues. He's out there in 90% of leagues.
TE
Darren Fells: He's been a huge addition for the Texans, and Watson clearly loves throwing to him. Hell, Watson will even throw him the ball blindly as we saw against the Raiders. Add Fells now if you need a TE. He's the best guy to get this week. He's rostered in less than 12% of leagues.
Jonnu Smith: He recorded 78 yards and a TD against the Bucs, so don't be afraid to use him if Delanie Walker remains sidelined. He's a great guy to pair with Walker if you're getting killed at TE and you have the roster space.
Defense
The Cowboys and Eagles have good matchups this week facing the Giants and Bears respectively. The Cowboys are coming off a bye, so they might have been dropped.
If you have any questions, feel free to hit me up on Twitter. Be sure to check out my show MoneyLine with Jerry Bo on ESPN 97.5FM. We're on every Sunday morning from 10-noon, and we'll talk a lot of fantasy football and NFL gambling getting you ready for kickoff every Sunday.
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So where does one turn now in Houston for mediocre, overpriced salsa? I kid, I kid. While wondering if Breggy Baked Beans are on the horizon. Congrats to Alex Bregman and agent Scott Boras for landing an on its face outlandish three-year 120-million dollar contract with the Boston Red Sox. With deferred money part of the deal the contract will be valuated in the neighborhood of “only” three years 90 million. Would Bregman have taken that from the Astros if offered? The Astros’ six-year 156-million dollar proposal was 26 mil per season. Bregman has the right to opt out after each of the first two seasons of his BoSox deal. If his decline (while still a very good player) of the last two seasons continues, or even if he holds steady, there is near zero chance of Bregman opting out unless he hates life in New England. At the end of the three years, will Bregman be able to land a three-year 66 million-dollar deal when he’s about to turn 34 years old? That plus the 90 mil with deferrals accounted for in his new deal would total 156 million. Massachusetts taxes personal income of just over a million dollars and upward at a nine percent rate. Playing half his games in the Bay State, Bregman will pay Massachusetts tax on half his salary.
Reminders...
Bregman obviously had an excellent Astros’ career, among non-pitchers he is top 10 all-time, but the excellence was frontloaded. Over Bregman’s first three big seasons he compiled a .289 batting average and .924 OPS. Elite numbers. Over the five seasons since: .261 and .795. Good, nothing legendary. After his monster MVP runner-up 2019 season (stats aided by the juiced balls of that season) Bregman was on a strong early Hall of Fame track. Now not so much, without some offensive resurgence. Fenway Park should suit Bregman well. He’ll bang singles and doubles off of the Green Monster, though the much higher than Crawford Boxes wall will not goose his home run numbers. In his time with the Astros Bregman mashed at Fenway with a .375 batting average and 1.240 OPS. That’s in a statistically not very significant 98 regular season plate appearances.
It is myth that Bregman in the postseason was some relentless hitting machine. He posted phenomenal numbers over seven Division Series batting .333 with an OPS over 1.000. Over 68 American League Championship Series and World Series games: batting average .196, OPS sub-.700.
For his career, Bregman’s worst month of performance by far has been April (plus any days in March, .737 OPS). In 2024 Bregman was baseball garbage into mid-May. Should a typical slow start happen again, we’ll see what the Fenway faithful patience level is. By far, Bregman’s best batting month has been August (.992 OPS). As it works out, both Astros-Red Sox series are in August this year. First in Boston August 1-3 then in Houston August 11-13.
Who's on third?
Over the last two seasons combined, new Astros’ third baseman Isaac Paredes has been as good offensively as Bregman. That includes Paredes pretty much stinking for two months in Chicago after being dealt from the Rays to the Cubs. Paredes, who turns 26 years old on Tuesday, was an AL All-Star last season. Bregman, who turns 31 March 30, was last an All-Star in 2019. The defensive drop-off from Bregman to Paredes is a fairly steep one.
There is no question that Bregman’s official departure weakens the Astros via a domino effect. Had Bregman wound up staying here, Paredes would have shifted to second base with Jose Altuve primarily in left field. Now, 600-plus plate appearances that Bregman would have taken project to be divided among Mauricio Dubon, Ben Gamel, Zach Dezenzo, and others. That projects as a substantial offensive downgrade. The lineup net result of the Astros’ offseason is negative. Christian Walker and Paredes joining the infield in lieu of Jon Singleton and Bregman is fine. Kyle Tucker out, hodge-podge in in the outfield, oh boy.
Alex Bregman is an unquestioned gamer, leader, and would seem to have the temperament to take well to the more intense baseball environment of Boston relative to that in Houston. Yankee fans should reeeeally love him now!
New beginnings
Considering baseball wasn’t invented until more than a century later, the poet Alexander Pope did not have baseball in mind when in 1732 he wrote “Hope springs eternal (in the human breast).” It works though. Other than the Chicago White Sox and Colorado Rockies, Major League teams have convened in Florida or Arizona thinking if things break right this could be their year! I’d probably put the Miami Marlins in with the ChiSox and Rockies. Many Astros’ fans are strongly disgruntled over the departures of Bregman and Kyle Tucker. This team still has “gruntlement” potential. The batting order appears Morganna-level (Google as necessary) top heavy, but one through five stacks well versus most other lineups. In the American League only the Mariners, Yankees, and maybe Royals have starting pitching rotations that should rate above the Astros’ rotation. Let the countdown to Opening Day begin!
Spring training is up and running. Join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday. Click here to catch!
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